The cost it takes to win a war.
ETHIOPIA wins the conflict with ERITREAN
After two years of war, at least 100.000 died in battle, the double of the wounded and maybe a million civilians died for hunger and now the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has concluded. A crushing and unexpected victory achieved from the Ethiopian troops on the western front has been the fruit of an intelligent planning based on the employment of columns which are armored with extremely motorized mobiles and supported by helicopters and attack jet –to launch on the sides of Eritrean disposition to smash defensive lines, then in order to go around the bench marks. A sure but not new tact is used successfully already by Afrika Korp di Rommel in North Africa, but it is still effective if the enemy, like in the case of Eritreans, does not have mobile units and put its action on the base of a static defense of the front.
The Ethiopian breaking through has brought the fast conquest of the western regions and the borderline with Sudan, forcing Eritreans to withdraw on the plateau of Keren to build the last defense line for the protection of the Capital Asmara from Ethiopian vanguards less than 70 km away. Already defeated Eritrea had to accept the peace plan, proposed by Algerian mediators which gives the way to the withdrawal from the frontier around Zalambessa and the control of things caused the conflict in May, 1998, together with economy and nationalistic prestige. During the frontal offensives against the opposing fire wall, Ethiopian General Staff has lost about 10,000 men. This time It can count on an immense number of arms purchased by Addis Abbeba from numerous countries; China, Russia and Ukrain -it isn’t accident that these countries have not stopped Security Council of UN voting the war in the confront of the two belligerents. Last year from Moscow, Ethiopia bought 8 fighter bombers Su 27 for 150 million dollars, a dozen of attack aircrafts Su 25, as many attack helicopters Mi 24 Hind, tons of Chinese ammunitions, more than 100 wagons of 55 T surplus of Bulgarian army, French communication system and various types of arms from Yemen. Also there is in course an upgrade program of old jets Mig 21 and Mig 23 from the regimen of Menghistu fallen in 1991.
The total cost of this war effort is certainly not less than a billion dollars specially if considered that not less than 100 Russian mercenaries work like technicians and pilots in the air forces of Addis Abbeba, and more than 300,000 men are currently called to the army and that the operations have extended also to Somali territory where more than 30,000 soldiers are disposed. According to many observatories, both countries spend 1 million dollars a day since May 1998 and the great part of the purchases comes paid from " emergency cash register " even if there is commercial barters for Chinese arms with Ethiopian coffee. Also Asmara has not been stingy with funds in order to support the war effort by purchasing from Ukrain about 10 of Mig 29 plus other 6 supplied from Russia with a huge quantitative of artillery and ammunitions, field rocket launchers sold by Bulgaria, and various types of arms from Libia. The money to acquire these arms has been lend by Libia and Qatar while good 600 million dollars are from the donations of Eritreans abroad and from the campaigns " gold for the Mother Land " activated in all the country. According to some sources, also the part of international humanitarian aids for fugitives and the victims of the famine is sent to the boarder to feed the combatants, just like the part of money allocated from the international organizations for the development would be ended in the pockets of the arm dealers of East Europe.
ETHIOPIA VICTORY: THE ROLE OF RUSSIA
Moscow has played an important role in this conflict both in the arms and ammunitions supply and in its strategic penetration in Horn of Africa. In fact, the access of the Red Sea creates one of the elements, bringing Russian politics which give back to Russia a super powerful control on the oil routes. To both Addis Abeba and Asmara, Putin has sold weapons but in truth favoured Ethiopia clearly. To Ethiopia, he has sold 6 Mig-21, 10 fighter bombers Mig-23 and 9 attack helicopters Mi-24, while to Eritrean, 6 Mig-29, but without supplying technical and logistic support. In fact, during the recent Ethiopian offensive, these aircrafts of Eritrea have remained stop on earth.
In order to go around the embargo, Russian companies transfer the armaments through Sudan and Somalia where the western controls are more difficult. In every case, Ethiopian offensive is supported in great part with equipments and materials from the Russian Armed Forces within the treaty CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe). In practical, materials which must be already destroyed end in war theatres to feed territorial or ethnic conflicts. The rearmament politics of Pro Russian regions pass also the other side of Red Sea. Right in this week, the minister of Russian Defense, Igor Sergeiev, is in Yemen to conclude the negotiation on a mega-trade of armaments. MIG-29 and Su-27 of the lastest version, Scud ballistic missiles, artillery rocket launcher, land-air missiles and very new armed vehicle T-72 are on the list. In this way, Putin has regenerated an old logistics base in the area from where he can feed easily, via Sudan and Somalia, all the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia in particular.
THE ROLE OF ITALY
In spite of good intentions of Italian government and European Union, the diplomatic mission in Horn of Africa of the sub-secretary of Foreign affairs and special representative of EU, Rino Serri, has been a total failure. The origin of Italian and European diplomatic failure, is certainly coming from the error, having aimed on the wrong man for a Addis Abbeba – Asmara mission. In fact, to the high officials of the two countries, two men who have crashed governments down, stand not far from the positions of the sub-secretary Serri and also as a communist and a supporter of the Ethiopian regimen of Menghistu.
Photo Ethiopians use donkeys to carry supplies for a surprise attack on Eritrean positions
Anyway, the diplomatic participation wouldn’t be able to make the combats stop also because Ethiopia was already crushing Eritrea and practically won in the war. Besides, Ethiopia was not content that Italy in past years has sold a dozen of light attack aircrafts to Eritrea, with the authorization of the ministry of Foreign Affairs, in conformity in the law 185 on the weapon export. So, this decision by the prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zanawi, hasn’t give any chance to Serri.
http://www.analisidifesa.it/numero4/eng/etiopiaeng.htm