I wonder how many of you have watched the movie Final Countdown Starring Kirk Douglas, etc. Scenario was the USS Enterprise was brought back in time back to World War II. It was fun to watch it where F14 Tomcat toyed with Japanese Zeroes.

Now going back to this thread's topic, let's say that the Philippines goes back in time intact with its current military hardware. Can the AFP be able to thwart the invading Japanese Army at Corregidor and Bataan?

Can the current fleet of S211, aging F5's finish off the entire Japanes Airforce? Can they also assist the PN by strafing and bombing Japanese Navy? Will the 41 Scorpions and 100+ M113 and V150 be able to stop the onslught of the Japanese Army?

Your thoughts? Just for kicks.

good thing you started this thread akimima. I have been tempted to start this issue for a long time already. you know I am an advocate for self reliance for our defense needs. my answer to your question is a big NO!!
eventhough we are now 60 yrs ahead of them, we dont have enough weapon to defeat them. as I said before we might be able to thwart off the initial attack but in the end we can't afford a war of attrition. not even in our lifetime bro. can we defeat the WW2 japanese armed forces. something winning a war is more than what toy you have but of the quality of the leader and of the people overall
it is just sad to say the truth.

Pilok,

Thanks for that. I have also wanted to start this thread a month ago. I have the same thoughts about the outcome. Here's what might happen (with no US intervention):

With the radars that the AFP has they will probably detect the incoming naval fleet of Japan and would dispatch the only fleet they have to guard the coastlines. The PAF will be notified and given red alert. By then the Japanese would have dispatched their Zeroes and Nakajima and Aichi bombers. They will be intercepted by the F5's and S211. The initial 2 waves will be stopped but while they are refuelling, third and fourth wave of carrier planes will attack while the naval guns bombard the coast. The puny PN fleet will engage Jap destroyers and light cruisers and will fight to the last ship. This might be over within a day due to the overwhelming naval force and carrier planes. Remember most ships from the PN are WWII vintage ships!

Going back to the aerial combat, the PAF will probably send half of their planes to intercept while the other half to refuel. This may go on for 2 to 3 days. They will also help in strafing naval ships and Jap marines that are now landing in from Manila bay, Bataan and Corregidor. The PA would have been mobilized to reinforce the coast with Howitzers, mortars, a few number of scorpion tanks and M113's. The PAF's pilots will be exhausted after 2 to 3 days of non-stop flying. Also by then the oil supply coming to the country is completely blocked due to the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the dominant presence of the Jap Navy. Due to sheer exhaustion, the PAF will slowly be subdued.

By 4 to 5 days the Japs would have air and sea superiority and that leaves the PA very vunerable. The armor capabilities of the AFP would be no match for the bombs that they will encounter from the JAP airforce. The land battle would be interesting since the Japs will utilize light tanks with weak firepower. Scorpions , V150's and several M113 will give them a good fight but modern warfare will always be won with superior air and naval power. I'd say within a month or 2 the AFP will be defeated. It goes to show that a sub-modernized AFP cannot even with against an external aggressor even if they are 60 years old.

:armyredface:

it's really shameful to say that even after 60 yrs we are still going to get slaughtered and raped by those evil force that our father have fought. I am pretty sure that right after the war they have vowed to make the philippines strong and never again to endure this humilitating defeat. they did!!! but fortunately or unfortunately after 60 yrs free from overt external threat we begin to rot from within. politician fighting politician. filipino soldier against filipino soldiers and combatant. :headbang: unlike israel, everyday threat of extinction drives them to unite and become strong even more.

Pilok,

That is a very nice point you have made there. Israel and the Philippines do have a lot in common. Both countries are surrounded with Muslim countries, both had their independence in 1946 and both have been a colony or protectorate by western power. The only difference is that Israel is not divided by bodies of water and that unification is a lot easier but that you should not deter the Philippines from doing so. Unity is the key to success.

ironically it seem that we are more able to fight them 30 yrs ago than today.

We could have beaten off the japs for another 30 days (30 days attrition) during the openning rounds of world war II. If only McArthur was not dumb, parochial and narrowminded. Why?

(I am winging it right now based on what i can recall)

A. Balance of forces (strategic deterrence).

1. The japs only have two troop convoys available to invade the philippines all based in formosa and a reserve based in China.

2. The japs have 90 planes and no betty bombers were permanently based in formosa ( they were committed to Malay-Singapore campaign and pacific)

3. The RP-US forces on the other hand have the following. US asiatic fleet, which includes several cruisers, an aircraft tender, several mine sweepers, an armed yacht, yangtze gunboats (detachment from the shanghai based yangtze patrol) and a squadron of S-Boats (littoral capable submarines, fleet subs were available only to the continental navy) and two S Boat tenders complete with workshops, two workable cranes and docking bouys, a dedicated oiler and provisions ships.

4. Air capabilitly composed of approx 100 Curtiss P-40 complete with pilot armor organized as the 7th Air Pursuit Group, and a bomber wing composed of 36 B-24 (i think or maybe B17s) newly organized in clark field. It also have 18 combat airfields dotting the luzon coastline, prepositioned with ammo, bombs and an operational hardened POL dump.

5. Two squadrons of PT boats, with several ad hoc naval stations complete with provisions located in quays and dredge opened mangrove areas (gubat bakawan)


B. Openning Round

1. The first strike was made by the Japs in Pearl Harbor, which happened at Dec 8 ( hawaii was -10 from GMT) so the attack occured at around 1AM in Manila Dec 8. McArthur convened a command conference at around 4AM. At this juncture, all naval units raised anchor sortied to sea, the 7th APG was scrambled to forward bases (mainly iba, subic and zambales field).

2. At 5AM in McArthurs conference, it was decided that a preemptive strike will be made on formosa mainly by bombers covered by fighters which can be easily dispatched fueled in Laoag field and escort the bombers to bomb airfields and Kaoshiong harbor (and a western formosa harbor i can not recall) in southern formosa. McArthur held off the armed, fuelled and ready bomb aircrews. He did give permission for the S boat squadron and PT squadron to reconnoiter the western luzon coast for an invasion force or a naval squadron.

3. The japs on the other hand is suppose to takeoff at 6AM with an air armada of 90 planes from bases in formosa, but delayed takeoff as a thick overcast has blanketed over bases and convergence/formation areas. They are hoping for a better solar angle to disperse the overcast thus making the delay indefinite and probably, rescheduling the sortie at noon.

4. Bomber command from clark were asking for instructions and is insisting that the bombing mission to commence at 7AM at the most 8AM, as the 7th APG have mustered several P40s in northern luzon.

5. The japs biting their nails that strategic surprise is quickly diminishing if an sortie is not executed before noon made a judgement call to takeoff just before 9AM, form the armada and made landfall about just past 10AM. A squadron quickly detached to attack laoag (i cant remember if they also attacked a field in cagayan at this mission) , the rest sweeping into zambales to neutralize iba and zambales field before making a dogleg to tarlac and atack clarkfield from the north and east.

6. The bomber aircrews now complaining about missing breakfast, was allowed to obtain meals on a rotation basis to the mess hall and an alert stand down was issued hoping for a noon sortie. The jap air armada reached clark at past 11am, the 7th APG now fully engaged was picked off one by one as the laoag ground controllers were late to issue a warning and that the group commander failed to issue a formation order. Though the 7th APG outnumbered the japs, the failure to make an air combat formation made them vulnerable (best they can do was a combat scramble).

7. By noon, the whole bomber squadron was decimated, the 7th APG lost 2/3 of its airworthy aircraft. At this juncture strategic capability to repel invasion now rest on the naval forces, coastal gunnery forces and 2 light tank battalions.

8. The japs made two successive waves of attacks in the next 24 hrs and has decimated squadrons and detachments stationed at nichols, nielson and ablan field (camp aguinaldo) including the cavite airstrip, naval shipyards, wharves and docks and depot.

C. The nail in the coffin

1. The only force that was able to deliberately engage the japs was the S boats but to the disdain of their crews. An S Boat detachment was able to track an invasion convoy due for pangasinan and ilocos coast, they have made successive engagements but literally all their torpedoes just bounced off the thin hulled troop carriers.

2. The 7th APG was transferred south of Manila by night and would sortie north by day stopping over remaining fields (iba, sometimes zambales and other minor airstrips) some more planes were lost to enemy action, or has run out of ammo and fuel in minor fields in northern luzon and was strafed on the ground.

3. Just before christmas, the once mighty 7th APG was decimated to a mere squadron, the two remaining bombers were transferred to del monte field in mindanao, the naval force was transferred to the combined asiatic naval fleet (composed of australian, dutch, american and british naval remnants) in surabaya dutch east indies (indonesia) where it will ultimately meet its end in the battle of java sea (along with the De Ruyter). The only remaining naval force is the S Boat tenders, S Boats, PT Boats and PT boat tenders and an array of minesweepers and patrol craft.

D. Post mortem

1. Its clearly evident that Mcarthur have the strategic advantage to harass if not to delay the japs before a boot sets foot on RP soil.

2. He could have made preemptive strike on formosa using his bombers.

3. Six years earlier, the Col Chennault and the American Volunteer Group (AVG) or more known as the "Flying Tigers" were able to hold two jap air groups with just two squadrons of P40s, the americans did not learn their lesson here, they could have withdrawn significant air assets to mindanao or could have practice the "flying tiger" ambush tactics utilizing the zambales mountains, sierra madre, cordillera as ambush high grounds to jap air armadas. (Pappy Boyington utilized the same tactics when he was evicted out of the AVG and joined as a naval aviator in the pacific utilizing islands as ambush pts making him the best naval air ace and his naval squadron, the "black sheep squadron" the best naval squadron in the pacific theatre).

4. McArthur could have utilized his bombers to repel troop convoys, if he withdrawn them to the south early that morning.

5. His greatest threat before hostilities was an air attack from formosa, but no trip wire network was setup that will alert him of air attacks from the north. Japs were at a disadvantage early in the hostilities as they only have 15 minutes over manila before they have to turn back for Kaoshiong, thus they can only take direct routes to Manila.

6. The japs only have to take laoag field to turn the air war around, it was relinquished without a fight bec Mac decided to trigger war plan orange, pulling out troops from ilocos. He did not realize that the jap lingayen operation was purely intended to encircle ilocos to secure a beachhead for their main landings and protect the crucial ilocos field. He could have harassed the forces due for this mission (he has the defender's advantage) as this is the center of gravity of any jap invasion plan. He could have launched his attacks from batangas (out of jap air attack range) used iba field as inbound refueling station and have a 8:1 advantage in air loiter time. This is exactly the threat that scared the japs that they have to advance the lamon bay operation in Quezon.

E. Relevance

It can be seen that in a country with a topography as the philippines, it has several advantage to project defensive deterrence and capability to off balance regional geopolitics. Which are...

1. Philippines have several islands that can be used as "permanent aircraft carriers" to launch intercept, strike and protracted air defense. Marcos envisioned this as a post US bases scenario. He has seen that Lubang air station can effectively contain chinese south china seas intentions. Til the late 60's lubang radar station and the 5TFW (or maybe it was the 7TFW) based on its field offerred strong chinese deterrence on the Spratly's independent of US commitments.

2. The Philippines can effectively defend itself (til a diplomatic solution) if it has good naval air capability. Further, naval air capable Philippines will even outbalance Taiwan straits issues to the advantage of ROC.

3. Imagine an invasion of the philippines as a river crossing operation. The invasion forces is funnelled into the river bridge (troop convoy) and is most vulnerable, the defenders advantage is that RP can subdue any invasion force crossing the bridge provided it has air standoff capability midway to the opposite river bank. Ans thats all it needs, you guys figure it out if its an A6 intruder, or an exocet/harpoon armed air capability. (this was actually proposed by Gen Almonte during his stint as national security adviser).

4. If the RP ever have that deterrent stance in place, our conflicts will mainly be confined to cycles of escalation and de-escalation revolving around disputes over our exclusion zones, anything above that is something short of WWIII, which can be best served by the US-RP Mutual defense treaty.

5. To conclude, long term RP defense posture should start with naval air capability, coastal air defense capability before land warfare capability is even considered (thus i would put tanks last in line).


Capiche?

Surehitter,

My hats off to you and your encyclopedic insight. The US I believe had B17 bombers at that time and not the B24's. If you remember right that before the Pearl Harbor Bombings, US radar detected a squadron of B17 coming off from a routine practice that fateful Sunday morning. These maybe the same bombers that flew from the Philippines, and stop at Guam for refuelling before going to Hawaii. But again i maybe wrong.

Yes I agree with you that naval upgrade or modernization should be prioritized as seen in history's past.

But like what this thread is all about, with what the AFP has right now. I have a strong feeling that RP cannot even win against a foreign aggressor that's even 60 years older. It goes to show that modernization is really needed.

Thatnks for your insights sir! :thumb:

music to my ear surehitter. :thumb: do you have reference that I could use?