Title: Typhoon Lupit (Ramil)
israeli - October 16, 2009 02:51 PM (GMT)
a new weather disturbance is heading our way... Typhoon Lupit (Ramil). :armyeek:
http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefres...200922W_22W.htm
Typhoon Lupit is forecast to strike the Philippines at about 00:00 GMT on 21 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.1 N, 122.5 E. Lupit is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 231 km/h (143 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Lupit's strength (category 4) at landfall includes:
* Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
* Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.
* Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
* Complete destruction of mobile homes.
* Extensive damage to doors and windows.
* Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
* Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
* Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.
http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefres...200922W_22W.htm
Typhoon Lupit is forecast to strike the Philippines at about 00:00 GMT on 21 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.1 N, 122.5 E. Lupit is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 231 km/h (143 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Lupit's strength (category 4) at landfall includes:
* Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
* Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.
* Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
* Complete destruction of mobile homes.
* Extensive damage to doors and windows.
* Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
* Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
* Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.
israeli - October 17, 2009 05:05 PM (GMT)
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 17 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has gained more strength as it moves towards the general direction of Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 930 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.2°N, 132.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: Moving Northwest at 9 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday evening: 770 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Monday evening: 650 km East of Tuguegarao City
Tuesday evening: 350 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised
israeli - October 18, 2009 10:58 AM (GMT)
as per the latest update at www.typhoon2000.ph, Lupit (Ramil) is now a SUPER TYPHOON (maximum sustained winds of 240 kilometers per hour).
PAGASA Weather Bulletin for Typhoon Lupit (Ramil)
Issued At: 5:00 p.m., 18 October 2009
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 1,150 kms East Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 17.4°N, 133.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: forecast to remain almost stationary
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday afternoon: 1,200 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Tuesday afternoon: 830 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 980 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Wednesday afternoon: 630 kms East of Basco, Batanes
PAGASA Weather Bulletin for Typhoon Lupit (Ramil)
Issued At: 5:00 p.m., 18 October 2009
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 1,150 kms East Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 17.4°N, 133.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: forecast to remain almost stationary
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday afternoon: 1,200 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Tuesday afternoon: 830 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 980 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Wednesday afternoon: 630 kms East of Basco, Batanes
fatbat_mca - October 19, 2009 02:32 AM (GMT)
I hope that Typhoon Lupit will live up to its name once it hits land. :armysad:
israeli - October 19, 2009 03:00 AM (GMT)
Typhoon Lupit (Ramil), a huge Category 5 Super Typhoon (maximum sustained wins of 250 kilometers per hour), is now following a southwesterly direction, heading towards areas of Northern and Central Luzon.
fatbat_mca - October 19, 2009 03:07 AM (GMT)
freakin freak ass typhoon, I hope the NDCC is prepared this time.
:armyeek:
:armyeek:
israeli - October 19, 2009 07:34 AM (GMT)
PAGASA is, still, way too conservative in predicting the actual wind speed and gustiness of Lupit (Ramil) while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency and other weather bureaus and monitoring agencies already consider it a Category 5 Super Typhoon that has maximum sustained winds of 250 kilometers per hour.
one thing is certain though: Lupit (Ramil) is heading towards extreme Northern Luzon.
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 19 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it moves northwestward slowly.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 1,110 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 133.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: move Northwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Tuesday morning: 900 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Wednesday morning: 510 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday morning: 180 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised
This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
one thing is certain though: Lupit (Ramil) is heading towards extreme Northern Luzon.
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 19 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it moves northwestward slowly.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 1,110 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 133.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: move Northwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Tuesday morning: 900 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Wednesday morning: 510 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday morning: 180 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised
This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
israeli - October 19, 2009 07:49 AM (GMT)
-- Super Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) and its well-defined eye, just east of the northeastern tip of Luzon.
AHEAD OF ‘RAMIL’
Prepare evacuation plan, local execs told
By Abigail Kwok
INQUIRER.net
First Posted 15:29:00 10/19/2009
MANILA, Philippines – Days before typhoon “Ramil” is expected to make landfall in the country, all local chief executives have been told to prepare their respective evacuation and disaster rescue plans for residents in typhoon-prone areas.
Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno issued the statement on Monday, particularly in provinces in the regions of central and northern Luzon, particularly Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao and Batanes group of islands.
Puno instructed local executives in these provinces to implement their evacuation plans as early as now, as “Ramil” is expected to make a landfall in the country in the next two days.
Puno, citing information obtained from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), said that “Ramil” packed winds of up to 175 kilometers per hour and is expected to hit Cagayan either Wednesday or Thursday.
Puno said that evacuation plans should consist of “disaster related operations such as early warning systems, relief and rehabilitation operations, including effective monitoring of prices and supply of basic commodities in their localities.”
He also urged all local officials to closely coordinate their efforts with the Regional Disaster Coordinating Council, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, the Philippine National Police and other government agencies.
israeli - October 19, 2009 08:56 AM (GMT)
forecast track from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). please take note of how HUGE Lupit (Ramil) is that it could cover much of Luzon and parts of the Visayas. (|8|
israeli - October 19, 2009 11:26 AM (GMT)
just imagine how big Super Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is when it is compared to the island of Luzon. :armyeek:
Lupit (Ramil) will cover much of Luzon!
Lupit (Ramil) will cover much of Luzon!
israeli - October 19, 2009 01:22 PM (GMT)
UPDATE: As of 9:00pm tonight, www.typhoon2000.ph reported that the wind speed of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) had gone down to 215 kilometers per hour. Despite the decrease in its wind speed and the downgrade from its previous Super Typhoon status, Lupit (Ramil) remains to be a powerful Category 4 typhoon which remains a threat to extreme Northern Luzon.
israeli - October 19, 2009 11:51 PM (GMT)
UPDATE: As of 6:00AM today, October 20, 2009, www.typhoon2000.ph reported that Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has been downgraded into a Category 3 Typhoon from its previous Category 4 Typhoon. Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is still very dangerous, possessing a wind speed of up to 195 kilometers per hour and still poses a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.
israeli - October 20, 2009 06:10 AM (GMT)
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 20 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 820 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.2°N, 130.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: West at 17 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday morning: 460 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday morning: 120 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Friday morning: 150 kms Southwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal:
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the tropical storm.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 20 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 820 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.2°N, 130.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: West at 17 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday morning: 460 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday morning: 120 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Friday morning: 150 kms Southwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal:
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the tropical storm.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
israeli - October 20, 2009 11:23 AM (GMT)
update from www.typhoon2000.ph:
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 20 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowing down as it starts heading westward...currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...no change in strength.
*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (particularly Northern Luzon) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slightly decelerate and turn more westerly to WSW-ward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slighty strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT approaching the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and steer the dangerous typhoon. LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on early Thursday evening Oct 22...passing very close to the north of Aparri between 8-9PM Thu. It shall cross Apayao and exit thru Ilocos Norte-Sur Area on Friday afternoon Oct 23, between 2-3PM...and over the South China Sea on Saturday morning, Oct 24. The typhoon shall turn westward while over the South China Sea, in the direction of Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Sunday Oct 25. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China weakens. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains fair. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become slightly stable. The eye remains cloud-filled as undergoes an Eyewall Replacement as shown on current satellite images. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 20 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowing down as it starts heading westward...currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...no change in strength.
*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (particularly Northern Luzon) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slightly decelerate and turn more westerly to WSW-ward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slighty strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT approaching the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and steer the dangerous typhoon. LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on early Thursday evening Oct 22...passing very close to the north of Aparri between 8-9PM Thu. It shall cross Apayao and exit thru Ilocos Norte-Sur Area on Friday afternoon Oct 23, between 2-3PM...and over the South China Sea on Saturday morning, Oct 24. The typhoon shall turn westward while over the South China Sea, in the direction of Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Sunday Oct 25. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China weakens. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains fair. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become slightly stable. The eye remains cloud-filled as undergoes an Eyewall Replacement as shown on current satellite images. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
israeli - October 20, 2009 11:27 AM (GMT)
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 20 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 750 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.4°N, 129.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: West at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday afternoon: 440 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday afternoon: 90 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 195 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan or
Friday afternoon: 180 kms West Southwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Group of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 20 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 750 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.4°N, 129.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: West at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday afternoon: 440 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday afternoon: 90 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 195 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan or
Friday afternoon: 180 kms West Southwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Group of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
israeli - October 21, 2009 12:11 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #028
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has started moving slightly WSW-ward towards Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands expected to reach the area tonight or tomorrow.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast track has changed significantly with a much slower pace. The typhoon is now expected to decelerate as it tracks more WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT decelerating more as it approaches the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction. LUPIT shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Ilocos Norte, near or over the town of Pagudpod early Sunday morning Oct 25 or approx. 2-3AM, & shall pass just to the north of Laoag City approx. 8-9 AM (Sun Oct 25). By early Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move NW to Northward into Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast has increased, so a possible shift can happen. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's Eyewall Replacement Cycle has ended, now shows a large eyewall, with still a cloud-filled EYE...its over-all circulation has slightly improved. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight or tomorrow - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 600 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.5°N, 127.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: West at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday morning: 280 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Friday morning: 70 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: At the vicinity of Laoag City or 50 kms North of Vigan City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #028
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has started moving slightly WSW-ward towards Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands expected to reach the area tonight or tomorrow.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast track has changed significantly with a much slower pace. The typhoon is now expected to decelerate as it tracks more WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT decelerating more as it approaches the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction. LUPIT shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Ilocos Norte, near or over the town of Pagudpod early Sunday morning Oct 25 or approx. 2-3AM, & shall pass just to the north of Laoag City approx. 8-9 AM (Sun Oct 25). By early Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move NW to Northward into Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast has increased, so a possible shift can happen. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's Eyewall Replacement Cycle has ended, now shows a large eyewall, with still a cloud-filled EYE...its over-all circulation has slightly improved. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight or tomorrow - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 600 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.5°N, 127.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: West at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday morning: 280 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Friday morning: 70 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: At the vicinity of Laoag City or 50 kms North of Vigan City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
israeli - October 21, 2009 04:31 AM (GMT)
UPDATE from www.typhoon2000.ph:
October 20, 2009, 10:00AM: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) weakened to Category 1 Typhoon, packing wind speed of up to 150 kilometers per hour and is moving southwest at 19 kilometers per hour towards the Cagayan-Ilocos area.
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 510 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.1°N, 126.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday morning: 190 km Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 290 km East Northeast of Laoag City
Friday morning: 80 km Northeast of Laoag City
Saturday morning: 120 km West Northwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Northern Cagayan
Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands
Batanes Group of Islands
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Sur
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
October 20, 2009, 10:00AM: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) weakened to Category 1 Typhoon, packing wind speed of up to 150 kilometers per hour and is moving southwest at 19 kilometers per hour towards the Cagayan-Ilocos area.
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 510 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 20.1°N, 126.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday morning: 190 km Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 290 km East Northeast of Laoag City
Friday morning: 80 km Northeast of Laoag City
Saturday morning: 120 km West Northwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Northern Cagayan
Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands
Batanes Group of Islands
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Ilocos Sur
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
israeli - October 21, 2009 11:23 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving WSW closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands approaching Batanes Group & Northern Cagayan.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate as it tracks WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 2 (165 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Northeastern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan on Friday afternoon, Oct 23 approx. 2-3PM as it barely moves Westward. It shall continue moving ona slow trek across the Northern portions of Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte throughout Saturday Oct 24. The core shall be off Laoag City early Sunday morning Oct 25 at around 2-3AM as a weakened Tropical Storm. By Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea, away from Ilocos Norte, re-strengthening back to a minimal Typhoon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move WNW to NW-ward towards Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned current forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time, however, LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions can be expected within the next 36 to 72 hours. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it approaches Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 455 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.7°N, 126.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday afternoon: 130 km East of Aparri, Cagayan or at 230 km East Northeast of Laoag City
Friday afternoon: vicinity of Laoag City
Saturday afternoon: 165 km West of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Pangasinan
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Zambales
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving WSW closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands approaching Batanes Group & Northern Cagayan.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate as it tracks WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 2 (165 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Northeastern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan on Friday afternoon, Oct 23 approx. 2-3PM as it barely moves Westward. It shall continue moving ona slow trek across the Northern portions of Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte throughout Saturday Oct 24. The core shall be off Laoag City early Sunday morning Oct 25 at around 2-3AM as a weakened Tropical Storm. By Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea, away from Ilocos Norte, re-strengthening back to a minimal Typhoon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move WNW to NW-ward towards Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned current forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time, however, LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions can be expected within the next 36 to 72 hours. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it approaches Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 455 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.7°N, 126.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday afternoon: 130 km East of Aparri, Cagayan or at 230 km East Northeast of Laoag City
Friday afternoon: vicinity of Laoag City
Saturday afternoon: 165 km West of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Pangasinan
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Zambales
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
israeli - October 22, 2009 12:07 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #032
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slows down as it nears the coast of Cagayan...outer rainbands affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate further to just 4 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan Saturday morning, Oct 24 and shall turn westward slowly. It shall continue moving on a slow trek across the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte throughout the weekend until Monday Oct 26. LUPIT shall be off Northern Coast of Ilocos Norte late Monday evening as a downgraded Tropical Storm. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon on a direct hit. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands has been already affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has slowed down as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 350 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.0°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West Southwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday morning: 250 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Isabela
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #032
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slows down as it nears the coast of Cagayan...outer rainbands affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate further to just 4 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan Saturday morning, Oct 24 and shall turn westward slowly. It shall continue moving on a slow trek across the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte throughout the weekend until Monday Oct 26. LUPIT shall be off Northern Coast of Ilocos Norte late Monday evening as a downgraded Tropical Storm. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon on a direct hit. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands has been already affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has slowed down as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 350 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.0°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West Southwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday morning: 250 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Isabela
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
israeli - October 22, 2009 05:26 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowed down further near the NE coast of Cagayan...new forecast shows a turn to the WNW to NW in the coming days, and may spare Cagayan on a direct hit.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning west to WNW-ward slowly into the Balintang Channel, passing very close to the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" continues to move slowly towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 300 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.8°N, 124.7°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West Southwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday morning: 190 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: 120 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 70 kms Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowed down further near the NE coast of Cagayan...new forecast shows a turn to the WNW to NW in the coming days, and may spare Cagayan on a direct hit.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning west to WNW-ward slowly into the Balintang Channel, passing very close to the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" continues to move slowly towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 300 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.8°N, 124.7°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West Southwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday morning: 190 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: 120 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 70 kms Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
israeli - October 22, 2009 11:14 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #034
LUPIT (RAMIL) loses strength, barely a Typhoon as it continues moving very slowly. High hopes are now on all forecast models as the system may likely track towards the north and spare Northern Luzon this weekend.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving Westward w/in the next 24 to 48 hours. Its wind speed will slightly re-intensify as it moves closer near the coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW into the Balintang Channel, passing north of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurve towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as majority of various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has deteriorated during the past 6 hours. A surge of dry air entered the system along the northwest portion which caused the weakening to just minimal Typhoon intensity (120 kph). The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea with its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has accelerated as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 180 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.4°N, 123.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 13 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday afternoon: 80 kms Southwest of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday afternoon: 270 kms West of Vigan, Ilocos Sur or at 270 kms Southwest of Laoag City
Sunday afternoon: 570 kms West of Vigan, Ilocos Sur
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Kalinga
Isabela
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #034
LUPIT (RAMIL) loses strength, barely a Typhoon as it continues moving very slowly. High hopes are now on all forecast models as the system may likely track towards the north and spare Northern Luzon this weekend.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving Westward w/in the next 24 to 48 hours. Its wind speed will slightly re-intensify as it moves closer near the coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW into the Balintang Channel, passing north of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurve towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as majority of various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has deteriorated during the past 6 hours. A surge of dry air entered the system along the northwest portion which caused the weakening to just minimal Typhoon intensity (120 kph). The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea with its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has accelerated as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 180 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.4°N, 123.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 13 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday afternoon: 80 kms Southwest of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday afternoon: 270 kms West of Vigan, Ilocos Sur or at 270 kms Southwest of Laoag City
Sunday afternoon: 570 kms West of Vigan, Ilocos Sur
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Kalinga
Isabela
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
israeli - October 23, 2009 12:02 AM (GMT)
www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #036
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) sill holding on as it remains almost stationary near the coast of Cagayan. Inner rainbands spreading across Cagayan, Northern Isabela & Batanes.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to drift westward slowly closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan...and weaken into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW to NW as it passes off the northern coast of Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and over the Balintang Channel-Calayan Island Area on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to lose organization as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands now spreading across Batanes, Cagayan & Isabela. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While its outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 23 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 130 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.6°N, 122.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near center and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement: It is forecast to move West slowly.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday morning: 70 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: it will be in the vicinity of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday morning: 90 km West of Aparri, Cagayan or at 40 km North of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt. Province
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
La Union
Benguet
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #036
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) sill holding on as it remains almost stationary near the coast of Cagayan. Inner rainbands spreading across Cagayan, Northern Isabela & Batanes.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to drift westward slowly closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan...and weaken into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW to NW as it passes off the northern coast of Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and over the Balintang Channel-Calayan Island Area on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to lose organization as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands now spreading across Batanes, Cagayan & Isabela. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While its outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
-----
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 23 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 130 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.6°N, 122.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near center and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement: It is forecast to move West slowly.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday morning: 70 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: it will be in the vicinity of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday morning: 90 km West of Aparri, Cagayan or at 40 km North of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt. Province
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
La Union
Benguet
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
israeli - October 23, 2009 04:14 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)
Updated: 12:00PM, October 23, 2009
Coordinates: 19.1N 123.3E
Wind speed: 110 kph
Forecast Track: Quasi-Stationary
Area Directly Affected/Targeted: Batanes Group
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Friday, 23 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it remains almost stationary.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.7°N, 122.7°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near center and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement: It is forecast to remain almost stationary.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday morning: 90 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 75 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday morning: 55 kms North Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt. Province
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
La Union
Benguet
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)
Updated: 12:00PM, October 23, 2009
Coordinates: 19.1N 123.3E
Wind speed: 110 kph
Forecast Track: Quasi-Stationary
Area Directly Affected/Targeted: Batanes Group
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Friday, 23 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it remains almost stationary.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.7°N, 122.7°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near center and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement: It is forecast to remain almost stationary.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday morning: 90 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 75 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday morning: 55 kms North Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt. Province
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
La Union
Benguet
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
israeli - October 23, 2009 01:07 PM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) has turned northward away from Cagayan's Coast during the past 3 hours and continues losing strength...threat to Extreme Northern Luzon diminishing.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast has changed...now gearing towards the Alternate Forecast Scenario...expected to drift slowly towards the north for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT recurving to the NNE or NE slowly in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, as the steering high pressure ridge to its right becomes the dominant factor of pushing LUPIT poleward. The core shall be about 185 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on Wed Oct 28th as weakend tropical storm with winds of only 85 kph. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea, just east of Basco with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Friday, 23 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has weakened into a Tropical Storm and remained almost stationary.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 110 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 122.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near center and gustiness of up to 135 kph
Movement: It is forecast to remain almost stationary.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday afternoon: 105 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday afternoon: 115 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday afternoon: 140 kms North Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan
Calayan Islands
Batanes Group
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Rest of Cagayan
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Kalinga
Benguet
Mt. Province
Isabela
Ifugao
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) has turned northward away from Cagayan's Coast during the past 3 hours and continues losing strength...threat to Extreme Northern Luzon diminishing.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast has changed...now gearing towards the Alternate Forecast Scenario...expected to drift slowly towards the north for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT recurving to the NNE or NE slowly in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, as the steering high pressure ridge to its right becomes the dominant factor of pushing LUPIT poleward. The core shall be about 185 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on Wed Oct 28th as weakend tropical storm with winds of only 85 kph. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea, just east of Basco with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Friday, 23 October 2009
Typhoon "RAMIL" has weakened into a Tropical Storm and remained almost stationary.
Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 110 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 122.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near center and gustiness of up to 135 kph
Movement: It is forecast to remain almost stationary.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday afternoon: 105 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday afternoon: 115 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday afternoon: 140 kms North Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan
Calayan Islands
Batanes Group
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Rest of Cagayan
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Kalinga
Benguet
Mt. Province
Isabela
Ifugao
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
israeli - October 24, 2009 07:49 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #041
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) moving faster northeastward, away from Northern Philippines.
*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking ENE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the ESE. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning ENE as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. It shall be downgraded into a depression on Tuesday morning and dissipate over water. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's weak circulation continues to deteriorate while moving NE. Its rainbands no longer affecting any major land masses. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 24 October 2009
Tropical Storm "RAMIL" has slightly weakened as it moves away from the country.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 340 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.7°N, 125.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near center and gustiness of up to 120 kph
Movement: It is forecast to move Northeast at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday morning: 610 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday morning: 950 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at 230 kms East of Okinawa, Southern Japan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the tropical storm.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #041
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) moving faster northeastward, away from Northern Philippines.
*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking ENE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the ESE. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning ENE as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. It shall be downgraded into a depression on Tuesday morning and dissipate over water. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's weak circulation continues to deteriorate while moving NE. Its rainbands no longer affecting any major land masses. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 24 October 2009
Tropical Storm "RAMIL" has slightly weakened as it moves away from the country.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 340 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.7°N, 125.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near center and gustiness of up to 120 kph
Movement: It is forecast to move Northeast at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday morning: 610 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday morning: 950 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at 230 kms East of Okinawa, Southern Japan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Batanes Group
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the tropical storm.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.