Title: Tropical Depression 23W
Description: Potential typhoon to hit Metro Manila
Description: Potential typhoon to hit Metro Manila
israeli - October 26, 2009 12:24 PM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED) intensifying as it nears Guam and the Marianas...may become a Tropical Storm later tonight.
*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to turn westward within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system hitting Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 30-Nov 01). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 125 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially north of it.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED) intensifying as it nears Guam and the Marianas...may become a Tropical Storm later tonight.
*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to turn westward within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system hitting Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 30-Nov 01). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 125 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially north of it.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
israeli - October 26, 2009 12:30 PM (GMT)
Forecast Tracks:
Tropical Depression 23W is forecasted to become a CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON starting this weekend.
when Tropical Depression 23W becomes a full-pledged tropical storm or typhoon, it will bear the international name MIRINAE (contributed by South Korea).
Tropical Depression 23W is forecasted to become a CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON starting this weekend.
when Tropical Depression 23W becomes a full-pledged tropical storm or typhoon, it will bear the international name MIRINAE (contributed by South Korea).
israeli - October 26, 2009 12:53 PM (GMT)
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/175602/brewing...-3-days-pagasa#
Brewing storm likely to hit RP in 3 days – Pagasa
SOPHIA M. DEDACE, GMANews.TV
10/26/2009, 06:02 PM
After Typhoon Ramil spared the Philippines over the weekend, another weather disturbance is threatening to hit the country within the next three days, the state weather bureau said Monday afternoon.
Prisco Nilo, head of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the cyclone (named Tropical Depression 23) could enter Philippine territory on Thursday or Friday.
It would be named Santi once it enters the Philippine area of responsibility. Next to Pepeng, Quedan, and Ramil, the new weather disturbance is the fourth cyclone to visit the Philippines for the month of October.
"Papasok sa Philippine area of responsibility mga bandang October 29 or 30. Ito ay di pa makaka-apekto sa alinmang bahagi ng bansa sa susunod na tatlong araw," Nilo said in an interview on dzBB radio.
He added that the following areas should brace for the weather disturbance’s effects: Visayas, southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila.
Nilo said the tropical depression was spotted at the Marianas Islands. It was located at 2,800 kilometers east of Visayas packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour. It is forecast to move west northwest at 19 kph.
He, however, said that TD 23 had already intensified into a storm even if under Pagasa’s classification, a tropical depression becomes a storm if its strength had already exceeded 65 kph.
Brewing storm likely to hit RP in 3 days – Pagasa
SOPHIA M. DEDACE, GMANews.TV
10/26/2009, 06:02 PM
After Typhoon Ramil spared the Philippines over the weekend, another weather disturbance is threatening to hit the country within the next three days, the state weather bureau said Monday afternoon.
Prisco Nilo, head of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the cyclone (named Tropical Depression 23) could enter Philippine territory on Thursday or Friday.
It would be named Santi once it enters the Philippine area of responsibility. Next to Pepeng, Quedan, and Ramil, the new weather disturbance is the fourth cyclone to visit the Philippines for the month of October.
"Papasok sa Philippine area of responsibility mga bandang October 29 or 30. Ito ay di pa makaka-apekto sa alinmang bahagi ng bansa sa susunod na tatlong araw," Nilo said in an interview on dzBB radio.
He added that the following areas should brace for the weather disturbance’s effects: Visayas, southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila.
Nilo said the tropical depression was spotted at the Marianas Islands. It was located at 2,800 kilometers east of Visayas packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour. It is forecast to move west northwest at 19 kph.
He, however, said that TD 23 had already intensified into a storm even if under Pagasa’s classification, a tropical depression becomes a storm if its strength had already exceeded 65 kph.
israeli - October 26, 2009 02:13 PM (GMT)
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded Tropical Depression 23W into a tropical storm.
israeli - October 26, 2009 03:39 PM (GMT)
virtually the entirety of Luzon from Ilocos all the way down to Bicol is on the path of this potentially powerful typhoon! :armyeek:
israeli - October 27, 2009 12:03 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
23W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now passing close to Guam, as depicted on Andersen Air Base' Doppler Radar.
*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 2 days...under the influence of the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 215 kph...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday afternoon, Oct 31 and crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night...and exiting the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands lashing the Marianas including Guam...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can be expected across these islands. 06 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
23W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now passing close to Guam, as depicted on Andersen Air Base' Doppler Radar.
*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 2 days...under the influence of the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 215 kph...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday afternoon, Oct 31 and crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night...and exiting the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands lashing the Marianas including Guam...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can be expected across these islands. 06 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
israeli - October 27, 2009 08:00 AM (GMT)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) continues to organize as it moves away from Northern Marianas.
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands has started to move out of the Marianas...improving weather conditions expected beginning tonight...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can still be expected across these islands troughout the day. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 30 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) continues to organize as it moves away from Northern Marianas.
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands has started to move out of the Marianas...improving weather conditions expected beginning tonight...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can still be expected across these islands troughout the day. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 30 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
israeli - October 27, 2009 12:15 PM (GMT)
Tropical Storm 23W has now been given the international name MIRINAE (name contributed by South Korea). When Mirinae enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will have the local name SANTI.
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) has been christened as MIRINAE...moving quickly Northwestward farther away from the Marianas...may threaten Luzon, Philippines in 2 to 3 days.
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (23W).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly...now expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity early Thursday morning, as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more Westward late Thursday Oct 29 until Friday Oct 30th...and will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph) about more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core will make landfall in between the towns of Baler & Casiguran in Aurora on late Saturday afternoon - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Pangasinan and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8AM today, showed the system passing close just north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation has been improving over the past 12 hours. Its rainbands has left Marianas...improving weather conditions expected. As of now, this system has been moving across warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 75 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae especially to the north.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html
TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) has been christened as MIRINAE...moving quickly Northwestward farther away from the Marianas...may threaten Luzon, Philippines in 2 to 3 days.
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (23W).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly...now expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity early Thursday morning, as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more Westward late Thursday Oct 29 until Friday Oct 30th...and will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph) about more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core will make landfall in between the towns of Baler & Casiguran in Aurora on late Saturday afternoon - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Pangasinan and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8AM today, showed the system passing close just north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation has been improving over the past 12 hours. Its rainbands has left Marianas...improving weather conditions expected. As of now, this system has been moving across warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 75 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae especially to the north.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]